Elephant Cracks

By Don Varyu

June 1, 2

There’s an old saying about how the two political parties choose their presidential candidates: “Democrats fa
ll in love. Republicans fall in line.” In a wider sense, that seems to describe the GOP as a whole. They often manage to wrestle control of the levers of government despite representing a clear minority of voters. They hang together. Republicans get their marching orders--and then they march.

But now, on several levels, that unity seems to be cracking:

(1) Presidential Candidates. Things haven’t been “nice” in the GOP ring since Donald Trump rode down his escalator and started throwing haymakers. He mocked his opponents in 2016 (“Little Marco”, “Lyin’ Ted”. He even made public Lindsay Graham’s cell phone number.) No matter. By election day, the party had fallen in line.

Trump is back and field-testing more nicknames, but this time he can expect more of a fight. Ron DeSantis’ initial message was kind of clever; to paraphrase, “yeah, he used to be wonderful. I wonder what happened to him?” That’s designed not to insult Trump’s base. But he’ll have to take risks in order to make any real headway.

In any case, things will definitely get a lot messier when Chris Christie announces his run. He is weighing in with a clear anti-Trump game plan. Whether that gives him even a remote chance isn’t as important as fomenting more GOP disharmony. Think the Animal House food fight.

(2) McCarthy’s Dilemma. House speaker Kevin McCarthy managed to get a “default bill” passed through his House. But it won more Democratic votes than Republican. His own caucus definitely did not fall in line. He continues to tap dance on a knife’s edge, knowing that at any minute just one disgruntled fellow GOP congressman could call for his ouster. Will people like Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene suddenly decide to stay silent? Just as likely they would opt to stop breathing. That default vote win for McCarthy put moderate House Republicans in the ascendency. Could they now move vocally to deflate their radical fringe?

(3) Texas. This is just one state--one entirely under the control of far-right wing conservatives. But those conservatives are definitely not getting along these days. The Governor and the Lieutenant Governor are conducting a public feud. The state Attorney General, a Trump toady, has been impeached by his own GOP-controlled state House. And another GOP representative was tossed out of office entirely—also by Republicans—for conducting a not-so-secret sexual affair with a drunken 19-year-old staffer. They say everything is bigger in Texas—maybe even the right-wing fractures.  

What connects all these things is a firestorm swirling around just one man—(predictably) Donald Trump. Republicans are caught between a reality that says no one gets elected without his base voters; and the counterpoint fact that his candidates most frequently crash and burn. What to do?!

Which defines the discord now roiling the GOP. Will moderates win back the party’s public face from the wackos? Or will crazy stay in the saddle?

While all this percolates, it inarguably opens a lane for Democrats to capture more independent voters: e.g., “these guys can’t even get along with each other. How could they possibly run a government?”

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