How Democrats Will Lose the Midterms

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By Don Varyu, August 24, 2025

To the ramparts, boys! The Grand Battle of Redistricting has been joined! Trump orders Texas to cheat, and they do! Newsom says “not so fast”—and marshals his own troops! Wow, this is exciting, and it will still be all the way to midterm election day (if, for no other reason, than the media will never stop obsessing over it).
Well, I say…yawn. Recently I told friends I was convinced that Trump will hold both houses of Congress next year. When I said that, it looked like they had swallowed shots of vinegar.
Do I believe in the wild idea that Trump could somehow invent a ridiculous pretense to simply cancel the midterms? Or delay them indefinitely? Well, you really can’t rule anything out with him. But he’s not going to have to do anything so blatant. No matter what the outcome of the redistricting skirmishes, that’s just a distraction. Because Trump has an ace in the hole that assures his win.
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As I write this, Gallup says 29% more Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance than approve of it. That’s a lot. And since every single GOP Congressman is daisy-chained to Trump’s backside, they do not relish the idea of running in defense of his antics.
So, while the redistricting kerfuffle is just Trump characteristically trying to make things unfair, I think this is just a ruse. What the GOP is really working on behind the scenes is the plan that will deliver victory.
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Let’s first remember that elections are not always decided by those who cast the votes, but by the people who count the votes. Historically, this has cut both ways.
In 2000, the U.S. Supreme Court overruled the Florida Supreme Court and prematurely shut down a manual recount of votes that would decide the presidency. Counts to that point seemed to be swinging toward Democrat Al Gore. But the high court decision—unsupported by law—ruled that George W. Bush would suffer “irreparable harm” if the counting continued. In this case, the people who ultimately counted the votes were the five conservative justices of the Supreme Court.
In 1960, “late-reporting precincts” in the Democratic stronghold of Chicago barely nudged John F. Kennedy to a tight national victory over Richard Nixon. In that case, the sole vote counter was Chicago mayor Ricard J. “Boss” Daley.
It seems clear to me that Trump stands ready to be the counter-in-chief this time around. Let me present my evidence:

  • Recall that in the days following his 2020 defeat to Joe Biden, Trump asked/begged the Secretary of State in Georgia to “find me 11,000 votes” in order to win that state…and thus, grant him an immediate second term. Georgia declined. This time around, Trump won’t be taking any such chance.

  • In 23 states (representing 174 Congressional seats) elections are overseen by Republican Secretaries of State or election commissions led by people appointed by Republican governors. The rails are fully greased. Trump won’t need to call anyone directly this time. His  lackeys can quietly inform two people--Governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas—just how many wins are required in their tight swing districts to secure the House. Maybe that’s five? Ten? A dozen? It doesn’t matter. Do you think either of those tools would hesitate? And there are a dozen more GOP states to make similar arrangements if necessary.

  • Should any of this scandal leak out, and cause corruption charges to arise—so what? Who do you think is going to investigate? Pam Bondi?

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Believe me, I’m not trying to dampen Democratic turnout. But we’ve got to acknowledge we’ll be fighting intoxicating fantasy with mere reality. Trump has proven that fantasy is stronger.
And I’ll take this assertion one step further. I don’t think fair federal elections will be held in 2026 OR 2028. Trump  simply will not let that happen; and again, there will be no one to stop him.
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So, is there any recourse?
Maybe not. But I’d suggest one idea. Dig into the coffers of the national Democratic war chest and underwrite the deepest and most targeted exit polling ever done. Focus just on the swing districts that Trump is trying to hold or commandeer. Use the money to pay an independent organization to conduct it. If a GOP candidate is declared the winner by some tight count in some district—say, with a claimed margin of 52-48—then widely publicize the exit polls from the same district which indicated voters actually said they cast ballots 55-45 for the Democratic contender.
I’m not saying outcomes would be overturned. But this would at least plant doubt and outrage in enough minds to  hopefully build in some actual safeguards in 2028.
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The midterm “blue wave” in the 2018 midterms is the only election defeat connected to Trump’s political career. He won’t talk about that one—and absolutely will not stand for a repeat. He will forever deny his flop against Joe Biden in 2020. And he will never again allow the word “loser” to be tied to his name.
Plus, I think it’s better than even money that he will push this all the way to 2028, as well…ushering in his third term.
 
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