The Most Important Midterm Battle
/By Don Varyu
Oct, 2026
he most important midterm battle doesn’t even include candidates. No one will stand and declare victory. No one will concede.
Instead, the decision will ask Californians to vote up or down on a single ballot measure called Prop 40. Voters will determine whether to assess a one-time-only, 5% tax only on the state’s 250 billionaires. Significantly, it won’t be weighed against their income, because billionaires generally don’t have incomes. (They tend to take compensation in stock and other nontaxable forms.) Rather, it will apply to their total wealth. The measure would designate 90% of the proceeds toward state health care, providing, preserving or extending coverage to the state’s 40 million residents.
However, the potential import of this is much wider, as it would set a benchmark that could be adoped by to other states—or eventually, the federal government.
This first California effort is particularly potent because it confronts perhaps the two most inflammatory issues concerning voters: the impossible cost of health care, and capitalismrun amok—i.e., income inequality.
eedless to say, this won’t be easy. It’s obvious those billionaires will say or spend whatever they wabnt to in order to keep their fortunes intact. Millions of their dollars have been underwriting attack ads against the measure for some time.
But not all opposition comes from right-wing billionaires. Outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom is against it, as are both the Democratic and Republican candidates running to succeed him. So is the mayor of San Francisco. And so are groups from which you might expect support, including the state teachers association, the NAACP and Planned Parenthood.
What explains this is a multi-billion-dollar game of chicken. Many groups are fearful that the whole thing will backfire, under the threat that those billionaires will just pull up stakes and move elsewhere (a la Elon Musk). However, the measure is written to apply retroactively to Jan. 1, 2026, which means, “move if you like—you’re still on the hook for the tax.”
inancial claims on both sides are fuzzy. Opponents say a wealth exodus will drain between $1billion and $25 billion from state coffers. Proponents claim the opposite is true—that it will generate a new $100 billion windfall. Believe what you want.
The latest independent pols show a close race: a virtual coin flip.
n effect, the overriding battle here is between status quo capitalism, and (economically) those who want to all but start over. If you think this isn’t a real conflict, findings from a Gallup poll this summer may include surprising results.
Respndents where asked whether they had positive or negative views about capitalism and socialism. For those over the age of 55, 30% had positive feelings for socialism, compared to 67% for capitalism.
But among people 18-34, socialism lbeat out capitalism, 49% to 46%.
The fate of Prop 40 could foretell the state of U.S. politics for decades. Is America ready to rebalance the scales of prosperity?
